Prediction of Candela Vazquez vs Carla Markus at W15 Mogi das Cruzes 11-21-25

• Candela Vazquez's recent second serve performance shows a 34.11% point win rate, while Carla Markus slightly edges out with 34.58%. Could this small margin be a pivotal factor in match predictions?
• On the return game, Vazquez has a stronger recent form on opponent's second serves, winning 51.99% compared to Markus's 51.15%. Who has the upper hand on first serve returns? Markus, with 35.35%, surpasses Vazquez's 29.97%.
• Under pressure, Markus is more efficient, saving 47.18% of breakpoints compared to Vazquez's 42.94%.
• Markus has a better match win rate over the last year at 56.86% versus Vazquez's 48.00%. Which player has shown more consistency?
• Both players excel on clay with a career win rate of 60%, yet Vazquez performs better on hard courts at 50% compared to Markus's 33%.
• In tournaments above $10K, Markus shows a stronger performance, winning 51.72% of matches in contrast to Vazquez's 41.18%.
• Markus faces higher-ranked opponents, with an average rank of 336.12, compared to Vazquez's 388.96.
• In deciding sets, Markus has the edge, winning 25% versus Vazquez's 20% over the last year.
• Break point conversion rates also favor Markus, converting 43.75% compared to Vazquez’s 33.93%.

Editorial Prediction (November 21, 2025, UTC):

As we analyze the recent performance metrics, Carla Markus has shown a slight advantage in several key areas. Her ability to win more points on returns, especially against first serves, indicates a potential edge.

Her higher match win rate over the past year, along with better performance under pressure situations such as break points, further suggests her competitive prowess.

Despite both players having a strong clay game, Markus's superior performance against higher-ranked opponents and her better record in deciding sets highlight her as the likely favorite.

Considering these factors, Carla Markus has the upper hand and is more likely to emerge victorious in this upcoming match against Candela Vazquez.